The US Dollar may prosper in a risk-off environment as the coronavirus spurs haven demand amid a market-wide selloff in global equities. Not surprisingly, easing expectations from central banks – notably the Fed – have swollen but have failed to drag USD down with growth prospects. This in large part has to do with the Greenback’s unparalleled liquidity and position as the world’s reserve currency; but more on that later.

Two weeks ago, the IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva sent a chilling message at the G20 summit in Riyadh about the coronavirus. She warned that it is the most pressing uncertainty in the world today, and that its impact on global growth is a “stark reminder of how a fragile recovery could be threatened by unforeseen events”.

NONFARM PAYROLL DATA MAY INFLAME FED EASING EXPECTATIONS

Nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show 195k new jobs added for February, though pessimism around the effect of the coronavirus may be reflected in softer employment statistics. This comes after the prior report registered the strongest figures since November 2019. Consequently, this reinforced the Fed’s notion that current economic circumstances do not warrant an adjustment in interest rates. COVID-19 may change that.