by admin | Mar 4, 2020 | News
GBP/USD STABLE AS MARKETS WAIT FOR INTEREST RATE CUT
A quarter-point cut in UK interest rates by the Bank of England on March 26 is now fully priced in to the markets, benefiting the FTSE 100 index of leading London-listed stocks but leaving GBPUSD little changed. According to the overnight index swaps market, there is now a 100% likelihood of a reduction in Bank Rate to 0.5% from the current 0.75% in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s emergency cut in the Federal Funds rate Tuesday to counter the economic impact of the coronavirus.
by admin | Mar 2, 2020 | Weekly Roundup
MONDAY
Any strength the pound may gain through positive UK data will quickly erode with the hardline approach the government is giving the EU in trade negotiations. This is due to all the left wing liberal remainers being removed from the PM’s cabinet, along with the continuing purge amongst top civil servants.
Technically our GBP pairs started the London open Dom Long, after the long run of good UK data from last week. With the realisation of the above, we knew from the onset that any long trades were going to be difficult, though there were still several decent trades to be had.
The EUR/AUD was technically Dom Long with good trades but the prise of the day has to go to the Dom Short German Dax. Even in the wake of good German data, the short was relentless on the back of the Coronavirus which has affected all world stockmarkets.
Despite the reduced points from our currency pairs, we still had another very respectable maximum potential of 660 points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries from the London morning session alone, with 335 coming from the Dax alone.
A 10% target of this figure would have yielded a minimum of 66 net points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries, with many additional opportunities in the US morning (UK afternoon) and US afternoon (UK evening) sessions.
TUESDAY
The pound was behaving in a more technical fashion today, save the GBP/AUD on a gradually weakening AUD. We had both long and short Doms with good points in both directions. The pounds strength was also bolstered by a general transfer of risk from stocks to currencies due to the Coronavirus
The EUR/AUD was Dom Long with some nice trades and the ever strengthening euro again playing very well with the Dom Short German Dax with some excellent points available. The short Doms being further bolstered by negative German data and the further concern of the Coronavirus. This continues to create increased volatility in worldwide stocks, with no escape from the slide. This gave a potential of 325 points from the Dax alone.
Today our currency pairs yielded better points than yesterday and we had another very respectable maximum potential of 715 points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries from the London morning session alone, with a target of just 30.
A 10% target of this figure would have yielded a minimum of 71 net points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries, with many additional opportunities in the US morning (UK afternoon) and US afternoon (UK evening) sessions.
WEDNESDAY
Another topsy turvy day for our GBP pairs. Yesterdays strength in the pound was quickly eroded after the London open on continuing Brexit fundamentals. The good thing is all our early Jath trades never seem to be affected and there were some good long trades before the rot set in. The EUR/AUD was technically Dom Long with some very good trades available. Regardless of the strong euro, there was very little to stop the relentless Dom Short German Dax. However such huge selloffs (655 points) saw a rebound leading up to the US open.
Today we had a mind boggling maximum potential of 1,205 points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries from the London morning session alone, with a target of just 30.
A 10% target of this figure would have yielded a minimum of 120 net points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries, with many additional opportunities in the US morning (UK afternoon) and US afternoon (UK evening) sessions.
THURSDAY
We had another excellent day with a maximum potential of 795 points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries from the London morning session alone, with a target of just 30.
A 10% target of this figure would have yielded a minimum of 79 net points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries, with many additional opportunities in the US morning (UK afternoon) and US afternoon (UK evening) sessions.
FRIDAY
Friday was another excellent day for our Doms, with our GBP pairs being both long and short and excellent points available.
The EUR/AUD was Dom Long with good trades and the German Dax was Dom Short and this was despite some excellent German unemployment figures.
We had an outstanding day with a maximum potential of 1,390 points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries from the London morning session alone, with a target of just 30.
A 10% target of this figure would have yielded a minimum of 139 net points from specific Max Day Trading time/price level entries, with many additional opportunities in the US morning (UK afternoon) and US afternoon (UK evening) sessions.
THE TRADE OF THE WEEK
by admin | Feb 29, 2020 | News
The US Dollar may prosper in a risk-off environment as the coronavirus spurs haven demand amid a market-wide selloff in global equities. Not surprisingly, easing expectations from central banks – notably the Fed – have swollen but have failed to drag USD down with growth prospects. This in large part has to do with the Greenback’s unparalleled liquidity and position as the world’s reserve currency; but more on that later.
Two weeks ago, the IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva sent a chilling message at the G20 summit in Riyadh about the coronavirus. She warned that it is the most pressing uncertainty in the world today, and that its impact on global growth is a “stark reminder of how a fragile recovery could be threatened by unforeseen events”.
NONFARM PAYROLL DATA MAY INFLAME FED EASING EXPECTATIONS
Nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show 195k new jobs added for February, though pessimism around the effect of the coronavirus may be reflected in softer employment statistics. This comes after the prior report registered the strongest figures since November 2019. Consequently, this reinforced the Fed’s notion that current economic circumstances do not warrant an adjustment in interest rates. COVID-19 may change that.
